一直以来，50米以上水深的范畴被行业视为漂浮式风电项目的必选。但近期，一项来自TGS | 4C公司（TGS公司旗下的4C Offshore业务板块‌，专注于‌全球海上风电市场情报与数据分析）的研究显示，一种新型的深水固定式风电基础及混合式基础技术的应用，将严重挤压漂浮式风电基础的市场规模。

For a long time, the water depth above 50 meters has been regarded by the industry as a must for floating wind power projects. However, recently, a study conducted by TGS | 4C Company (the 4C Offshore business division of TGS Company, specializing in global offshore wind market intelligence and data analysis) has shown that the application of a new type of deep-water fixed wind power foundation and hybrid foundation technology will significantly reduce the market size of floating wind power foundations.

2026年4月，英国首个获得差价合约（CfD）的漂浮式海上风电项目TwinHub被开发商Hexicon以1英镑价格，将100%股权及相关资产负债打包转让，该合同也被英国低碳合同公司正式列为“已终止”。开发商Hexicon给出的理由只有一句话：通胀飙升和供应链成本大幅上涨。

In April 2026, the UK's first floating offshore wind project with a Contract for Difference (CfD), TwinHub, was sold by developer Hexicon to a buyer for £1. The entire 100% equity and related assets were packaged and transferred. This contract was officially classified as "terminated" by the UK Low Carbon Contracts Company. The only reason given by the developer, Hexicon, was a single sentence: soaring inflation and a significant increase in supply chain costs.

来自技术和成本的打击接连上演，漂浮式海上风电未来将走向何方？

With successive blows from technology and costs, where will the future of floating offshore wind power go?

漂浮式风电停在278MW

Floating wind power has a capacity of 278MW.

一组来自《全球海上风电产业链发展报告2025》的数据显示，截至2024年底，全球漂浮式海上风电累计装机容量278MW，其中挪威101MW、英国78MW、中国40MW，三国合计占据绝大多数份额。

A set of data from the "Global Offshore Wind Power Industry Development Report 2025" shows that by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of floating offshore wind power worldwide was 278MW. Among them, Norway had 101MW, the United Kingdom had 78MW, and China had 40MW. The three countries accounted for the vast majority of the total share.

最新发布的《2026全球风能报告》指出，2025年没有任何的新增漂浮式海上风电投产，这是自2015 年以来的首次。尽管日本首个16.8 MW的浮式风电项目在去年年底完成风机安装，但2026 年初才全面投入使用。法国去年有三个在建项目，总装机容量达 65MW、中国一个16MW的海上漂浮式试验项目也已准备就绪，但这四个项目均预计在 2026 年投入运营。

The newly released "2026 Global Wind Energy Report" states that there was no new floating offshore wind power project put into operation in 2025, which is the first time since 2015. Although the first 16.8 MW floating wind power project in Japan was completed with the installation of the wind turbine at the end of last year, it was not fully put into use until the beginning of 2026. France had three ongoing projects last year with a total installed capacity of 65 MW, and a 16 MW offshore floating test project in China was also ready. However, all these four projects are expected to be operational in 2026.

这与行业早年的预期相去甚远。近两年在地缘政治和供应链成本压力下，众多海上风电项目宣告取消，国际能源署（IEA）‌在2025年10月发布的《可再生能源2025》中明确提到因成本上升、供应链问题及政策调整（尤其在美国和欧洲），预测‌2030年全球海上风电装机容量预计将达到140GW‌，‌较上年下调了27%‌‌。

This is far from the expectations of the industry in its early years. In the past two years, under the influence of geopolitical factors and supply chain cost pressures, numerous offshore wind power projects have been cancelled. The International Energy Agency (IEA) explicitly mentioned in its "Renewable Energy 2025" report released in October 2025 that due to rising costs, supply chain issues, and policy adjustments (especially in the United States and Europe), it predicted that the global installed capacity of offshore wind power in 2030 would reach 140 GW, a 27% decrease compared to the previous year.

而漂浮式海上风电作为技术成熟度最低、成本最高的一环，所受到的冲击也将更加剧烈。

However, floating offshore wind power, which is the least technologically advanced and the most costly part, will be hit even harder.

固定式海上风电的蚕食

The encroachment of fixed offshore wind power

如果说寒冬是漂浮式面临的外部环境，那么固定式基础技术的持续创新，则是从内部再次挤压了漂浮式的空间。

If the harsh winter represents the external environment faced by the floating system, then the continuous innovation of the fixed foundation technology has once again squeezed out the space for the floating system from within.

漂浮式的核心价值主张始终建立在一个前提上：由于成本高和技术制约，50米以上水深已经不适合固定式基础，而全球大量优质风资源恰恰藏在50米以上的深水区。但这条分界线，正在被系统性地向深处推移。

The core value proposition of floating technology is always based on one premise: Due to high costs and technical limitations, water depths above 50 meters are no longer suitable for fixed foundations, while a large amount of high-quality wind resources are precisely located in the deep waters above 50 meters. However, this boundary line is being systematically pushed deeper.

回到开篇报道，TGS | 4C提到技术之一是Entrion Wind公司的专利设计，其通过创新结构将单桩基础应用水深拓展到60米至120米。据TGS分析，该技术在约60米水深时，成本与传统单桩持平；与导管架基础相比，可节省5.5至9.6欧元/兆瓦时；与浮式基础相比成本优势更大，降本在7.6至31.6欧元/兆瓦时之间。

Returning to the opening report, TGS | 4C mentioned that one of the technologies is the patented design of Entrion Wind Company, which expands the application of single-pile foundation to water depths of 60 meters to 120 meters through innovative structure. According to TGS's analysis, when the water depth is approximately 60 meters, the cost of this technology is the same as that of the traditional single-pile; compared with the jacket foundation, it can save 5.5 to 9.6 euros per megawatt-hour; compared with the floating foundation, the cost advantage is greater, with a cost reduction ranging from 7.6 to 31.6 euros per megawatt-hour.

另一方面，适用水深30至100米的导管架基础，也正在向更深水域稳步扩张，中国制造的导管架基础已出口至欧洲地区，折射出这一技术路线供应链的成熟程度。

On the other hand, the use of jacket foundations with a water depth range of 30 to 100 meters is also steadily expanding to deeper waters. The jacket foundations made in China have been exported to the European region, reflecting the maturity of the supply chain for this technical route.

这意味着，过去被视为漂浮式专属的中深水区域，正面临来自固定式技术的直接竞争。固定式的优势不仅在于技术成熟，更在于其背后完善的供应链体系，漂浮式赖以立足的不可替代性，正在被一点点蚕食。

This means that the previously considered exclusive territory of floating technologies is now facing direct competition from fixed technologies. The advantages of fixed technologies lie not only in their mature technology, but also in their well-established supply chain system. The irreplaceable nature on which floating technologies rely is gradually being eroded.

成本与政策的双杀

The double blow of costs and policies

成本，也是漂浮式海上风电商业化绕不过去的坎，在整个海上风电行业都在寻求降本路径的当下，漂浮式的成本曲线还没有出现拐点。

Cost is also a hurdle that cannot be bypassed in the commercialization of floating offshore wind power. At a time when the entire offshore wind power industry is seeking cost reduction paths, the cost curve of floating wind power has not yet reached a turning point.

全球漂浮式海上风电从2009年发展至今，造价已经由Hywind 1的17.8万元/kW降低至当前约3万元/kW，但仍然远超同期固定式海上风电造价水平。中国首个大规模开发的漂浮式风电项目投标造价约2万元/kW，同期近海风电的平均单位造价为9000-12500元/kW。

Since its inception in 2009, global floating offshore wind power has seen a significant reduction in cost. The cost of Hywind 1 was 178,000 yuan/kW, but it has now dropped to approximately 30,000 yuan/kW. However, it is still much higher than the cost of fixed offshore wind power during the same period. The bidding cost for China's first large-scale floating wind power project is about 20,000 yuan/kW, while the average unit cost of offshore wind power in the same period is 9,000 - 12,500 yuan/kW.

政策层面的障碍则更为严峻。2025年8月，特朗普政府取消了总计6.79亿美元的海上风电联邦政府资金。政策的急转直下和不确定性增强，不但为漂浮式海上风电商业化路径蒙上一层阴影，也进一步挫伤全球投资者对这一赛道的信心。

The obstacles at the policy level are even more severe. In August 2025, the Trump administration cancelled a total of 679 million US dollars in federal government funds for offshore wind power. The sudden and drastic change in policies and the increased uncertainty not only cast a shadow over the commercialization path of floating offshore wind power, but also further dampened the confidence of global investors in this sector.

从产业发展的客观规律来看，成本与政策的关系恰在于二者互相放大：成本居高不下使漂浮式项目对政策补贴的依赖度极高，而补贴一旦撤出，商业化资金几乎闻风而逃同步断裂，步入一个相互掣肘的死循环。

From the perspective of the objective laws of industrial development, the relationship between cost and policy lies in the fact that they mutually amplify each other: the persistently high cost makes floating projects highly dependent on policy subsidies, and once the subsidies are withdrawn, commercial funds almost immediately flee in unison and the system collapses, entering a mutually restrictive vicious circle.

深水仍是最后的护城河

Deep water remains the last bastion of security.

视线回到国内。前几天，中国可再生能源学会风能专业委员会秦海岩秘书长在署名文章《以风电确立专属经济区经济主权》中强调，发展深远海风电不仅能大幅增加清洁能源供给，助力“双碳”目标实现，还能带动高端装备制造、海洋工程等产业链升级。更为重要的是，深远海区域风电的事实存在，对强化海洋权益的维护与利用，确立和实现经济主权意义重大，核心战略意义远超能源本身。

Returning our attention to China. A few days ago, Secretary Qin Haiyan of the Wind Energy Professional Committee of the China Renewable Energy Society wrote in an article titled "Establishing Exclusive Economic Zone Economic Sovereignty through Wind Power Development", emphasizing that the development of offshore wind power not only can significantly increase the supply of clean energy and contribute to the realization of the "carbon neutrality" goal, but also can drive the upgrading of the high-end equipment manufacturing and marine engineering industries. More importantly, the actual existence of offshore wind power is of great significance for strengthening the protection and utilization of maritime rights and interests, establishing and realizing economic sovereignty. The core strategic significance far exceeds that of the energy itself.

就我国而言，在技术进步条件下，海上200m高度+离岸300km内，风电技术经济可开发潜力约31亿千瓦。全球80%的海上风能资源在深水区，资源禀赋决定了漂浮式海上风电的不可替代性，相信在未来《深远海海上风电开发管理条例》指引下，漂浮式风电也将成为我国深远海的重要能源形式。

In China, under the condition of technological progress, the economic potential for wind power development within a height of 200 meters above sea level and within a distance of 300 kilometers from the coast is approximately 3.1 billion kilowatts. 80% of the global offshore wind energy resources are located in deep waters. The resource endowment determines the irreplaceability of floating offshore wind power. It is believed that with the guidance of the "Regulations on the Development of Offshore Wind Power in Deep Seas" in the future, floating wind power will also become an important energy form in China's deep-sea areas.

今年3月24日，中电建发布了万宁漂浮式海上风电项目一期10万千瓦样机工程的塔筒及附件采购。该项目一期工程于2022年底获核准并正式开工，2023年5月完成项目EPC招标、同年12月确定整机供应商、2024年4月完成浮体招标、2025年12月完成海缆招标采购。历时3年才走到塔筒制造环节，虽未达成原定2025年底全容量并网的目标，但也进一步给了行业在成本和技术压力下踯躅前行的决绝和信心。

On March 24th this year, China Electric Power Construction Corporation released the procurement of tower frames and accessories for the first phase of the Wanlin Floating Offshore Wind Power Project with a capacity of 100,000 kilowatts. The first phase of this project was approved and officially started in late 2022. The EPC bidding for the project was completed in May 2023, the main unit supplier was determined in December of the same year, the floating body bidding was completed in April 2024, and the sea cable procurement was completed in December 2025. It took three years to reach the stage of manufacturing tower frames. Although the goal of full capacity grid connection by the end of 2025 was not achieved, it further demonstrated the determination and confidence of the industry to move forward despite the pressure of costs and technology.

事实上，漂浮式海上风电面对的从来不是要不要发展，而是何时才能等来规模效应下的成本拐点这个关键命题，只是在当前的审批制度和成本压力之下，这个等待可能比行业预期的更漫长。

In fact, floating offshore wind power has never been about whether to develop or not; it has always been about the crucial question of when the cost inflection point will be reached due to the scale effect. However, under the current approval system and cost pressure, this wait may be longer than what the industry expected.

为攻克深远海风电商业模式与技术难题，助力未来深远海风电开发技术储备积累，北极星电力网、北极星风力发电网拟于2026年5月26日在江苏南京召开第六届海上风电创新发展大会，将邀请国家及地方政府主管部门、智库专家、规划与建设单位、产业链龙头企业、科研院校及金融机构代表，共绘海上风电高质量发展蓝图，解锁深远海、基地化、供应链、AI 技术等系列机遇和挑战，为产业跨越式发展注入强劲动能。

In order to overcome the business model and technical challenges of deep-sea wind power, and to contribute to the accumulation of technical reserves for future deep-sea wind power development, the "6th Offshore Wind Innovation Development Conference" of "Aurora Power Network" and "Aurora Wind Power Generation Network" plan to be held in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province on May 26, 2026. The conference will invite representatives from national and local government authorities, think tanks, planning and construction units, leading enterprises in the industry chain, research institutions and financial institutions to jointly draw up a blueprint for the high-quality development of offshore wind power, unlock a series of opportunities and challenges such as deep-sea, base-based, supply chain, and AI technology, and inject strong momentum into the leapfrog development of the industry.