金联创日前发布的数据显示，东北亚液化天然气（LNG）到岸价格从1月2日的约9.85美元/百万英热，一路攀升至5月底的18.68美元/百万英热，增长89.6%。与之形成对比的是，国内LNG出厂价未随国际气价大涨，总体平稳，且在6月初回落至6190元/吨。

Data released by Jinlianchuang recently shows that the landed price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Northeast Asia rose from approximately $9.85 per million British thermal units on January 2 to $18.68 per million British thermal units by the end of May, an increase of 89.6%. In contrast, the domestic LNG factory price did not increase along with the sharp rise in international gas prices. It remained generally stable and dropped to 6,190 yuan per ton in early June.

成本上行而价格平稳，多元供应结构发挥了关键作用。但在消费端，国家发改委发布的最新数据显示，今年1—4月，全国天然气表观消费量1372亿立方米，同比下降2.3%。业内人士表示，受工业用户短期调整、车用气阶段性变化影响，国内下游市场虽有短期价格承受压力，但整体供需形势可控，并未出现明显波动。

The increase in costs while prices remained stable was mainly attributed to the diversified supply structure. However, at the consumption end, the latest data released by the National Development and Reform Commission showed that from January to April this year, the apparent consumption of natural gas across the country was 137.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Industry insiders stated that although there was short-term pressure on prices in the domestic downstream market due to short-term adjustments by industrial users and phased changes in vehicle gas usage, the overall supply and demand situation was controllable and no significant fluctuations occurred.

成本之“上”，进口压力可控

Beyond the cost factor, the import pressure can be controlled.

此轮国际气价上涨看似是地缘冲突的即时反应，但业内普遍认为，这是全球LNG供应从“临时中断”走向“长期收缩”的转折。

This round of international gas price hikes seems to be an immediate response to the geopolitical conflicts, but the industry generally believes that it marks a turning point where global LNG supply shifts from a "temporary disruption" to a "long-term contraction".

受霍尔木兹海峡通行受阻影响，东北亚LNG到岸价4个月涨幅近九成。更关键的变化发生在供应端。卡塔尔能源大臣萨阿德·卡阿比今年3月公开表示，卡塔尔17%的LNG出口产能受损，每年1280万吨的产量损失预计需要3—5年才能修复。国际能源署今年4月发布的《天然气市场报告》也指出，短期供应损失叠加产能增长放缓，2026—2030年间全球LNG供应可能累计损失约1200亿立方米，紧张状态或持续至2027年年底。

Due to the obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the landed price of LNG in Northeast Asia has risen by nearly 90% in the past four months. A more significant change occurred at the supply end. In March this year, Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi publicly stated that 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity was damaged, and the annual production loss of 12.8 million tons is expected to take 3 to 5 years to be restored. The International Energy Agency's "Natural Gas Market Report" released in April this year also pointed out that the short-term supply loss combined with the slowdown in capacity growth may result in a cumulative loss of approximately 120 billion cubic meters of global LNG supply between 2026 and 2030. The tense situation may persist until the end of 2027.

未来，市场可能面对的不是一次性的“断供冲击”，而是一个阶段性持续的供应缺口。睿咨得能源天然气首席分析师熊维判断，如果霍尔木兹海峡通航持续受限，2026年全球LNG供应损失可达3800万吨，极端情况下甚至可能达到6800万吨。

In the future, the market may not face a one-off "supply disruption shock", but rather a phased and continuous supply gap. Xiong Wei, the chief analyst of Rystad Energy Gas, predicts that if the navigation of the Hormuz Strait remains restricted, the global LNG supply loss could reach 38 million tons in 2026, and in extreme cases, it could even reach 68 million tons.

多位行业分析师表示，虽然国内进口成本已较年初大幅抬升，且这一状态预计将持续，但依托多元化的进口来源、长协合约与国内气源调节，整体压力处于可控范围，接收站目前运行平稳有序。

Several industry analysts have stated that although the domestic import costs have significantly increased compared to the beginning of the year and this trend is expected to continue, thanks to diversified import sources, long-term contracts, and domestic gas source regulation, the overall pressure remains within a controllable range, and the receiving stations are currently operating smoothly and orderly.

需求之“下”，市场阶段性承压

Behind the demand, the market experiences temporary pressure.

成本端的压力客观存在，而国内下游市场的反应也较为直接。

The pressure on the cost side is objectively present, and the response from the domestic downstream market is also quite direct.

6月1日中国LNG出厂价降至6190元/吨，比5月中旬的高点有所回落。当LNG出厂价超过5900元/吨时，其相对于管道气和替代燃料的经济性明显减弱，部分工业用户选择减产或切换气源，车用LNG加气站的采购量也出现萎缩。这些现象表明，下游对高价气的承接能力有限。

On June 1st, the出厂 price of LNG in China dropped to 6,190 yuan per ton， having declined from its peak in mid-May. When the LNG factory price exceeded 5，900 yuan per ton， its economic competitiveness relative to pipeline gas and alternative fuels significantly weakened. Some industrial users chose to reduce production or switch gas sources， and the purchase volume at vehicle LNG refueling stations also shrank. These phenomena indicate that the downstream market's ability to absorb high-priced gas is limited.

金联创调查数据显示，截至5月21日，国内液厂平均库存水平达到42%。库存上升带来销售压力，上游企业适度降价以促进出货，但价格下行又可能加重下游观望情绪，市场呈现一定的僵持特征。

According to the survey data from Jinlianchuang, as of May 21st, the average inventory level of domestic liquid plants reached 42%. The increase in inventory has brought about sales pressure. Upstream enterprises have moderately reduced prices to facilitate sales, but the downward trend in prices may further intensify the观望 sentiment among the downstream market players. The market exhibits a certain degree of stalemate characteristic.

宏观数据印证需求端的疲弱。上海石油天然气交易中心发布的数据显示，2025年中国天然气消费量约4359亿立方米，同比增长2.8%，但工业用气出现下降。今年一季度，全国天然气表观消费量同比下降2.2%。

Macro data confirm the weakness in the demand side. Data released by the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange shows that China's natural gas consumption is expected to be approximately 435.9 billion cubic meters in 2025, an increase of 2.8%. However, industrial gas consumption has declined. In the first quarter of this year, the national apparent consumption of natural gas decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous year.

国际能源署发布的《天然气市场报告》指出，霍尔木兹海峡每中断1个月，主要进口国家和地区的天然气需求预期就会相应下调。地缘冲突持续时间越长，下游需求的收缩可能越明显。业内人士认为，成本和需求相互影响，国内LNG市场短期内仍将处于调整阶段，回暖尚需时日。

The "Natural Gas Market Report" released by the International Energy Agency indicates that for every month of disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, the expected demand for natural gas in major importing countries and regions will decrease accordingly. The longer the geopolitical conflict lasts, the more pronounced the contraction of downstream demand is likely to be. Industry insiders believe that cost and demand interact with each other. The domestic LNG market will remain in an adjustment phase in the short term and will take some time to recover.

但整体看，中国在多元能源供应结构下，正平稳应对国际局势变化，国内LNG市场虽面临阶段性调整，但运行保持平稳。

Overall, under the diversified energy supply structure, China is smoothly responding to changes in the international situation. Although the domestic LNG market has undergone a phase of adjustment, its operation remains stable.

LNG工厂加速气源多元化

LNG plant accelerates diversification of gas sources

值得注意的是，中国石油缩减气源竞拍投放量成为供给端的一个重要变化。

It is worth noting that the reduction in the quantity of gas source auctions by China National Petroleum Corporation represents an important change in the supply side.

隆众资讯数据显示，今年1月，中国石油日均气源投放量为2300万立方米，其中现货资源占比76%；3月中下旬，日均投放量降至1120万立方米，不及1月的一半，现货占比也回落至18%。今年4月以来虽小幅回升，但整体投放规模仍只有1月的五成左右。

According to data from Longzhong Information, in January this year, the average daily gas supply volume of China National Petroleum Corporation was 23 million cubic meters, with spot resources accounting for 76%. In mid-to-late March, the average daily supply volume dropped to 11.2 million cubic meters, less than half of that in January, and the proportion of spot resources also fell to 18%. Although it has slightly increased since April, the overall supply volume is still only about 50% of that in January.

这个变化给LNG工厂带来影响。“不少工厂已转向CNG、延长、大唐等气源以维持生产负荷，气源多元化趋势增强。”隆众资讯LNG行业分析师张梦洁说，“1月气源竞拍投放量占管道气工厂日均产量的比重高达87%，说明工厂对竞拍气源的依赖程度极高。到4月上半月，竞拍投放量同比下降48%，但常规气工厂产量只下降了20%，竞拍占比降至56%，因为工厂开始寻找替代气源。”

This change has an impact on the LNG plants. "Many plants have switched to gas sources such as CNG, Ling'an, and Datang to maintain production capacity. The trend of diversifying gas sources has intensified," said Zhang Mengjie, an LNG industry analyst at Longzhong Information. "In January, the proportion of the auctioned gas source in the daily output of pipeline gas plants reached as high as 87%, indicating that the plants' reliance on the auctioned gas source was extremely high. By the first half of April, the proportion of auctioned gas source dropped by 48%, but the output of conventional gas plants only decreased by 20%, and the proportion of auctioned gas source dropped to 56%, as the plants began to look for alternative gas sources."

多位业内人士表示，短期看，库存压力摆在面前，降价促销是唯一选择。但进口气成本居高不下，降价空间有限。

Many industry insiders have stated that in the short term, the inventory pressure is a reality, and price reduction and promotional activities are the only option. However, the cost of imported goods remains high, and the room for price reduction is limited.

北京大学特聘研究员郑洪弢公开表示，今年国际气价将维持相对高位，国内非采暖季供需整体偏紧，但2028年后全球LNG产能集中释放将重塑市场格局。全行业应增强应变能力，加快天然气市场化改革，实现市场的价值发现功能。

Zheng Hongtao, a specially-appointed researcher at Peking University, publicly stated that this year's international gas prices will remain at a relatively high level. In the non-heating season in China, the overall supply-demand situation is tight. However, after 2028, the concentrated release of global LNG production capacity will reshape the market landscape. The entire industry should enhance its adaptability, accelerate the reform of the natural gas marketization, and realize the value discovery function of the market.