眼下美伊冲突持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡局势紧绷。这场战争带来的不只是油价飙升，更是全球能源格局的剧烈震荡。越来越多国家意识到，过度依赖中东石油和单一能源通道的风险太大了。贝莱德CEO拉里・芬克近期就明确警示，若油价长期高位运行，全球经济将承压，许多国家会被迫加速转向太阳能、风能等可再生能源。这不是危言耸听，而是正在发生的现实。

At present, the conflict between the United States and Iran is escalating continuously, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is tense. This war has not only led to a sharp increase in oil prices, but also caused a significant upheaval in the global energy landscape. More and more countries have realized that relying excessively on Middle Eastern oil and a single energy channel is too risky. Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, recently explicitly warned that if oil prices remain at a high level for a long time, the global economy will be under pressure, and many countries will be forced to accelerate their shift towards renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. This is not an alarmist statement but a reality that is unfolding.

数据不会骗人。国家能源局最新数据显示，截至2025年底，中国可再生能源总装机达23.4亿千瓦，历史性超过火电，风光发电量占比达22%。更关键的是，我们建成了全球最完整的新能源产业链，从硅料、电池片到组件，从风机到储能设备，中国企业在全球市场的份额遥遥领先。这正是我们能成为这场能源转型最大赢家的底气。

Data never lies. The latest data from the National Energy Administration shows that by the end of 2025, China's total installed capacity of renewable energy reached 2.34 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time. The proportion of wind and solar power generation reached 22%. More importantly, we have built the world's most complete new energy industrial chain, from silicon materials, solar cells to modules, from wind turbines to energy storage equipment. Chinese enterprises have a significant lead in global market share. This is precisely the confidence that we can become the biggest winner in this energy transformation.

先看全球转型的紧迫性。冲突直接催化各国政策转向。日本扩大煤电使用，印度要求煤电厂满负荷运转，欧洲多国重新评估退出煤电时间表。高盛大宗商品研究主管也指出，亚洲国家正改变长期战略，更快发展可再生能源，减少对天然气的依赖。与此同时，资本市场用脚投票，中国电池与新能源龙头企业股价跑赢国际石油巨头，比亚迪、零跑等品牌在欧洲销量随油价上涨而回升。

Let's first look at the urgency of global transformation. Conflicts directly prompt policy shifts in various countries. Japan has expanded the use of coal power, India has required coal power plants to operate at full capacity, and many European countries have re-eva luated their timelines for phasing out coal power. The head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs also pointed out that Asian countries are changing their long-term strategies, accelerating the development of renewable energy and reducing reliance on natural gas. At the same time, the capital market is voting with its feet. The stock prices of leading Chinese battery and new energy enterprises have outperformed those of international oil giants. Brands such as BYD and Zolax have seen their sales in Europe rebound as oil prices rise.

再看中国的硬核优势。我们的产能优势是世界级的。2025年，中国光伏电池片出口约116.2吉瓦，同比增长97.59%;光伏组件出口267.1吉瓦，同比增长6.4%，合计出口约383.3吉瓦，同比增长23.7%。新型储能装机突破1亿千瓦，占全球比重超40%，稳居世界首位。华为、阳光电源等中国企业已深度参与中东能源项目，在2026年迪拜电力展上，中国展团签约率显著提升。

Let's take a look at China's strong advantages. Our production capacity is world-class. In 2025, China's export of photovoltaic cell panels was approximately 116.2 gigawatts, increasing by 97.59% year-on-year; the export of photovoltaic modules was 267.1 gigawatts, increasing by 6.4% year-on-year. The total export was approximately 383.3 gigawatts, increasing by 23.7% year-on-year. The installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 100 million kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global share, firmly ranking first in the world. Chinese enterprises such as Huawei and Suntech Power have deeply participated in energy projects in the Middle East. At the Dubai Power Exhibition in 2026, the signing rate of the Chinese exhibition group significantly increased.

更重要的是，我们掌握了核心技术与成本优势。全球光伏产业链成本曲线在中国企业手中被压到最低，同样的光伏电站，中国建设成本比欧美低30%以上。这意味着，当各国都在疯狂采购可再生能源设备时，中国企业能以最高性价比供货，直接抢占万亿级市场。

More importantly, we have mastered the core technologies and possess cost advantages. The cost curve of the global photovoltaic industry has been reduced to the lowest level in the hands of Chinese enterprises. For the same photovoltaic power stations, the construction cost in China is over 30% lower than that in Europe and the United States. This means that when all countries are frantically purchasing renewable energy equipment, Chinese enterprises can supply goods at the highest cost-performance ratio and directly seize the trillion-dollar market.

这场转型对中国的战略意义，远比卖设备要深远。能源自主是国家安全的基石。通过输出可再生能源技术和设备，我们能帮助更多国家摆脱对化石能源的依赖，尤其是那些地缘政治风险高的地区。这不仅能提升中国的国际影响力，更能构建一个更安全、更稳定的全球能源供应链，让我们在国际博弈中多一张关键底牌。

This transformation holds much greater strategic significance for China than merely selling equipment. Energy independence is the cornerstone of national security. By exporting renewable energy technologies and equipment, we can help more countries break free from their reliance on fossil fuels, especially in regions with high geopolitical risks. This not only enhances China's international influence but also builds a safer and more stable global energy supply chain, giving us an additional crucial card in international competitions.

同时，这也为中国经济开辟了新的增长极。新能源产业已成为拉动出口和就业的重要引擎。2025年，风电光伏新增装机再创历史新高，产业链上下游创造了数百万个高质量就业岗位。随着全球能源转型进入加速期，中国新能源产业将持续受益，形成新的竞争优势和经济增长点。

At the same time, this has also opened up new growth poles for the Chinese economy. The new energy industry has become an important engine driving exports and employment. By 2025, the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will reach a new historical high, and the upstream and downstream of the industry will create millions of high-quality jobs. As the global energy transition enters an acceleration period, China's new energy industry will continue to benefit and form new competitive advantages and economic growth points.

当然，我们也要看到潜在的挑战。欧美不会坐视中国垄断全球新能源市场，必然会通过贸易壁垒、技术封锁等手段进行围堵。中东产油国也在加速转型，沙特、阿联酋等国大力发展光伏、绿氢项目，试图构建多元化能源体系。但这恰恰是中国的机会，我们可以与这些国家开展合作，共同推动能源转型，实现互利共赢。

Of course, we must also be aware of the potential challenges. The European and American countries will not stand idly by and allow China to monopolize the global new energy market. They will definitely try to contain China through measures such as trade barriers and technological blockades. The oil-producing countries in the Middle East are also accelerating their transformation. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are vigorously developing photovoltaic and green hydrogen projects, attempting to build a diversified energy system. However, this is precisely an opportunity for China. We can cooperate with these countries to jointly promote energy transformation and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

说到底，伊朗战争只是一个催化剂，它加速了全球能源转型的进程。在这场百年未有之大变局中，中国凭借提前布局的全产业链优势和强大的产能，精准踩中了时代红利。从能源安全到经济增长，从国际影响力到战略自主，中国都将在这场转型中收获实实在在的红利。

In the end, the Iran War was merely a catalyst that accelerated the global energy transition process. In this unprecedented major transformation of the century, China, leveraging its advanced full-chain layout and strong production capacity, precisely seized the era's benefits. From energy security to economic growth, from international influence to strategic autonomy, China will reap tangible benefits in this transformation.

全球能源版图正在重塑，谁能掌握可再生能源的主动权，谁就能在未来的国际竞争中占据先机。中国已经走在了前面，接下来能否持续领跑，关键在于我们能否不断突破技术瓶颈，保持成本优势，深化国际合作。这场博弈，才刚刚开始。

The global energy landscape is undergoing a transformation. Whoever gains the upper hand in renewable energy will be able to seize the initiative in future international competition. China has taken the lead. Whether it can continue to lead in the future depends crucially on whether we can constantly break through technological barriers, maintain cost advantages, and deepen international cooperation. This game has just begun.