石油，铁矿石等大宗商品价格受国际市场影响较大，煤炭作为国家能源安全的"压舱石"，通过长协价格指数机制实现有效调控。目前煤炭价格已构建起完整的指数体系，涵盖长协煤，市场煤，产地煤等维度，覆盖全国各产区及用户端。

The prices of commodities such as oil and iron ore are greatly influenced by the international market. Coal, as the "ballast stone" for national energy security, is effectively regulated through the long-term contract price index mechanism. Currently, the coal price has established a complete index system, covering dimensions such as long-term contract coal, market coal, and local coal, and covering all production areas and user ends across the country.

当煤炭市场价格出现剧烈波动时，长协煤炭价格指数能够保持相对平稳。

When there are significant fluctuations in the coal market prices, the long-term contract coal price index can remain relatively stable.

近年来，国内煤炭产能充足，去年产量达48.3亿吨，加上约4.9亿吨的进口量，整体供应大于需求。这推动煤炭价格持续下行：2023年初价格为1185元/吨，随后逐年大幅下降，2024年降至927元/吨，2025年降至769元/吨。

In recent years, domestic coal production has been abundant. Last year, the output reached 4.83 billion tons, along with approximately 490 million tons of imports. The overall supply exceeded demand. This led to a continuous decline in coal prices: in early 2023, the price was 1,185 yuan per ton, and then it dropped significantly year by year, reaching 927 yuan per ton in 2024 and 769 yuan per ton in 2025.

从历史规律来看，一季度通常因需求下降煤炭价格呈下行趋势，但今年一季度煤炭价格不跌反升，比如4月17日煤炭价格为772元/吨，比年初上涨83元，涨幅12%，同比上涨97元，增幅高达14.4%，美以伊冲突爆发以来累计上涨30多元。

From the perspective of historical patterns, in the first quarter, coal prices usually decline due to a decrease in demand. However, this year, coal prices did not fall but rose instead. For instance, on April 17th, the coal price was 772 yuan per ton, which was an increase of 83 yuan compared to the beginning of the year, representing a 12% increase. Compared to the same period last year, it rose by 97 yuan, with an increase of 14.4%. Since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, the price has risen by more than 30 yuan.

预计今年全年煤炭价格将明显回升，呈现"淡季不淡，旺季有支撑"的特征。

It is expected that the coal prices will rise significantly throughout the entire year, showing the characteristic of "low demand in off-season but strong demand in peak season".

这一走势主要得益于"十五五"开局之年，火电，化工等下游领域产量增长：受冲突影响，原油，天然气价格高企，煤化工产品经济性提升，开工率走高，预计一季度化工用煤需求增长9%，尿素产量增长10%。

This trend is mainly attributed to the growth in output in downstream sectors such as thermal power and chemical industries in the first year of the "15-16" period. Due to the impact of conflicts, the prices of crude oil and natural gas are high, and the economic efficiency of coal chemical products has improved, with an increase in the operating rate. It is expected that the demand for coal for chemical production will increase by 9% in the first quarter, and the urea production will increase by 10%.

气电经济性下降，带动火电负荷反弹，一季度火电同比增长3.7%。

The economic efficiency of thermal power has declined, leading to a rebound in thermal power load. In the first quarter, thermal power saw a year-on-year growth of 3.7%.

此外，印尼大幅削减煤炭出口配额，将出口规模从去年的7.9亿吨下调至6亿吨。该政策引发市场对印尼煤供应的担忧，叠加从澳大利亚进口缩减，仅俄罗斯等其他来源的增量不足以弥补缺口，今年我国煤炭整体进口量预计将大幅减少。

Furthermore, Indonesia has significantly reduced its coal export quotas, lowering the export volume from 7.9 billion tons last year to 6 billion tons. This policy has raised concerns in the market regarding the supply of coal from Indonesia. Coupled with the reduction in imports from Australia, the increase from other sources such as Russia is insufficient to fill the gap. As a result, China's overall coal imports are expected to decrease significantly this year.

进口缩量，叠加中东局势紧张推高海运费，共同推动煤炭价格上涨。今年煤炭市场将出现进口煤价格高于国内煤的罕见现象。

The decline in imports, combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, has driven up shipping costs, jointly contributing to the increase in coal prices. This year, a rare phenomenon will occur in the coal market where the price of imported coal is higher than that of domestic coal.

中下游煤炭库存明显下降，市场对能源安全的预期变化也催生了投机性补库需求，建议电厂将库存提升至安全用量水平。

The coal inventories in the middle and lower reaches have significantly decreased. Changes in market expectations regarding energy security have also triggered speculative demand for replenishing stocks. It is recommended that power plants increase their inventories to the safe level.

综合判断，预计今年全国煤炭产量约48.5亿吨，与去年基本持平或微增，整体产能仍有支撑。今年二季度价格将在750元/吨至850元/吨之间波动，价格中枢显著高于去年。

Overall, it is estimated that the national coal production this year will be approximately 4.85 billion tons, remaining basically the same as last year or showing a slight increase. The overall production capacity still has support. The price in the second quarter of this year will fluctuate between 750 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton, with the price center significantly higher than that of last year.

即使国际局势恢复稳定，价格也难以回到低位，核心原因在于国家对能源安全的重视程度提升，以及企业主动补库共同形成价格支撑。

Even if the international situation stabilizes, prices are unlikely to return to their previous low levels. The main reason for this is that the importance attached by countries to energy security has increased, and the proactive replenishment of inventories by enterprises has jointly provided support for prices.