据Commodity Insights 5月6日发布的信息，2026年下半年印度尼西亚动力煤预计将转为牛市，因为强烈的厄尔尼诺(El Niño)气候现象威胁出口、加剧物流紧张，并增加了印度进口需求增加的可能性。

According to the information released by Commodity Insights on May 6th, Indonesian thermal coal is expected to enter a bull market in the second half of 2026. This is because the intense El Niño climate phenomenon threatens exports, intensifies logistics tensions, and increases the possibility of an increase in India's import demand.

对厄尔尼诺现象的预测已逐渐明确：到7月发生的概率为61%，下半年发生的概率超过88%。天气模型显示，这将是一场强厄尔尼诺事件，媒体称之为“哥斯拉”(Godzilla)。

The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon has become increasingly clear: The probability of its occurrence by July is 61%, and the probability of its occurrence in the second half of the year is over 88%. Weather models indicate that this will be a strong El Niño event, which the media has dubbed "Godzilla".

曾经在2023年发生的厄尔尼诺事件可见一斑，但并非是合适的可以类比的参考案例。

The El Niño event that occurred in 2023 provides a clear example, but it is not an appropriate case for comparison.

2023年，印度尼西亚进入旱季，每月动力煤出口量高达4300万吨。尽管厄尔尼诺现象使6月至9月的出口量同比减少了8%，但全年的煤炭出口量仍同比增长了13%。

In 2023, Indonesia entered the dry season and the monthly export volume of thermal coal reached 43 million tons. Although the El Niño phenomenon led to a 8% decrease in the export volume from June to September compared to the previous year, the total coal export volume for the entire year still increased by 13%.

而今年截至目前，每月的煤炭出口量不足3500万吨，较2024年同期下降了27%。

As of this year so far, the monthly coal export volume has been less than 35 million tons, a decrease of 27% compared to the same period in 2024.

在以下的三种煤炭供应影响因素中，在2023年只有一种发挥了作用：

Among the three factors influencing coal supply, only one played a role in 2023:

2023年印度减少了购买印尼煤炭，主要因为当年印度国内煤炭产量创下了历史新高，如今这一市场因素正面临新风险。

In 2023, India reduced its purchase of Indonesian coal. The main reason was that the domestic coal production in India reached an all-time high that year. Now, this market factor is facing new risks.

今年更为严重的干旱，会使印尼河流驳船物流运输状况不仅不能改善，反而会进一步恶化。

This year's more severe drought will not only fail to improve but will instead further deteriorate the river barge transportation situation in Indonesia.

印尼国内市场供应义务规定，在压力下将要求更多的煤炭留在国内，而不是减少。

The domestic market supply obligation in Indonesia stipulates that under pressure, more coal will be required to be kept within the country rather than reduced.

值得关注的是，与太平洋强厄尔尼诺发生的同时，印度洋上与太平洋的厄尔尼诺现象相类似的正“印度洋偶极子”(Indian Ocean Dipole —IOD)气候也正形成，这将影响印度的季风降雨，而这些季风降雨的区域又正是印度煤炭生产供应的绝对主力——国有煤炭公司(Coal India)生产煤炭的煤田。如果印度无法补充自身的库存短缺，就必将激发煤炭进口的增加，从而也支撑2026年6月至10月期间的煤炭价格走强。

It is worth noting that at the same time as the strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is occurring, a similar "Indian Ocean Dipole" (IOD) climate phenomenon similar to that in the Pacific Ocean is also forming in the Indian Ocean. This will affect the monsoon rainfall in India, and the areas with this monsoon rainfall are precisely the main production and supply areas of coal in India - the state-owned coal company (Coal India) mines. If India is unable to replenish its inventory shortages, it will inevitably trigger an increase in coal imports, thereby also supporting the strengthening of coal prices from June to October in 2026.