四月的煤炭市场看似平静，实则底部逐步筑牢、支撑不断增强。产地降价空间有限、煤矿销售预期向好；港口僵持观望、等待补库信号；进口煤坚挺托底、价格高位不下。

The coal market in April may seem calm on the surface, but in fact, the bottom is gradually being consolidated and the support is constantly strengthening. The price reduction space for the production areas is limited, and the sales expectations for coal mines are improving; at the ports, there is a stalemate of waiting and observing, awaiting the signal for replenishing stocks; imported coal remains firm and provides a bottom support, with prices remaining at a high level.

多空博弈之下，市场并未走向单边走弱，而是在震荡中不断积蓄上行动能。随着节前补库窗口的到来、旺季预期逐步升温，叠加进口坚挺托底，市场终于迎来需求复苏、询货采购增多，阶段性强势反弹行情启动。

Under the backdrop of the bull-bear market contest, the market did not trend towards a single-sided weakening. Instead, it continued to accumulate upward momentum in the midst of fluctuations. With the arrival of the pre-holiday replenishment window, the expectation of the peak season gradually heating up, coupled with the strong import support, the market finally witnessed a recovery in demand, an increase in inquiries and purchases, and the launch of a phased strong rebound trend.

本周，环渤海港口动力煤市场由前期的僵持转为偏强运行。大秦线刚刚恢复运输，环渤海港口调入数量增加，但调出也很可观，港口低库存短期难改，造成可售优质货源有限。

This week, the power coal market in the Bohai Rim ports has shifted from a previous stalemate to a relatively strong trend. The Dalian-Qinhuangdao Railway Line has just resumed transportation, and the inbound quantity at the Bohai Rim ports has increased, while the outbound volume is also considerable. The low inventory at the ports is unlikely to change in the short term, resulting in limited available high-quality supply.

正值部分电厂备货期，叠加进口煤到岸价高出国内煤炭价格，持货方挺价心态坚决，低硫优质煤种报价较为坚挺，发运成本居高不下，贸易商低价出货意愿不强；而下游终端在主打长协兑现的基础上，对中高卡市场煤展开询货，对市场煤接受程度提高，成交增多。

At this time, some power plants are in the process of stockpiling. Coupled with the fact that the import coal prices at the port are higher than the domestic coal prices, the sellers have a firm determination to maintain their prices. The quotations for low-sulfur high-quality coal types are relatively firm. The transportation costs remain high, and the willingness of traders to sell at low prices is not strong. However, the downstream end-users, on the basis of prioritizing the fulfillment of long-term contracts, are conducting inquiries for medium and high calorific value market coal and have increased their acceptance of market coal, resulting in more transactions.

尤其对低硫及中低卡品种询价转好，对市场煤采购量有所增加。正值节前电厂补库时节，部分库存充裕且有浮盈的贸易商有出货行为，也有很多贸易商捂货，贵贱不卖，市场观点出现分歧。

In particular, inquiries for low-sulfur and medium-low calorific value products have improved, and the purchase volume of market coal has increased. At this time, it is the period before the festival when power plants are replenishing their inventories. Some traders with abundant inventory and profits are engaging in sales activities, while many others are holding onto their goods and refusing to sell regardless of price. This has led to a divergence of opinions in the market.

据京唐港贸易商张经理分析，检修结束后，调入恢复，将带动库存回升、压制价格，不如尽快出货，避免被套牢。而曹妃甸港贸易商刘经理则分析，地缘风险未消、进口成本高企及旺季临近，价格下方支撑牢固，等待节后再出货，赚取更大利润。

According to Zhang Manager of the Jingtang Port traders, after the maintenance is completed and the supply is restored, it will lead to an increase in inventory and a suppression of prices. It would be better to sell the goods as soon as possible to avoid being trapped. However, Liu Manager of the Caofeidian Port traders analyzed that the geopolitical risks have not subsided, the import costs are high, and the peak season is approaching. The price has a strong support from below. They plan to sell again after the festival to earn greater profits.

需求端的结构性分化是当前市场的核心特征，一方面，电煤消费呈现“反季节攀升” 的意外韧性，从不被看好的三四月份，终端表现却是出乎意料，尤其纳入统计的重点燃煤电厂日均发电量环比、同比竟然保持增长态势。

The structural differentiation at the demand end is the core feature of the current market. On one hand, the consumption of thermal coal shows unexpected resilience in terms of "seasonal increase", and the terminal performance in the usually unfavorable months of March and April was unexpectedly good. Especially, the daily average power generation of key coal-fired power plants included in the statistics has maintained a growth trend both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.

另一方面，本应垒库阶段，产业链条并未出现往年同期的被动垒库，目前淡季渐行渐远，电厂日耗正在恢复，沿海煤市大概率将以三年来同期最低库存步入旺季，这为贸易商闪转腾挪提供了较大的发挥空间，电煤需求的提升和改善均对市场煤价格起到助推作用。

On the other hand, during the period when the inventory should have been accumulated, there was no passive inventory accumulation as seen in previous years. Currently, the off-season is gradually fading away, the daily consumption of power plants is recovering, and the coastal coal market is likely to enter the peak season with the lowest inventory in three years. This provides considerable room for traders to maneuver. The increase and improvement in demand for thermal coal have also contributed to the upward trend of market coal prices.

此外，市场结构性支撑还来自化工、建材等非电行业在夏季限产之前的生产旺季的稳定刚需，对部分优质煤种形成有力支撑。

Furthermore, the market's structural support also comes from the stable demand for non-electric industries such as chemicals and building materials during the production peak season before the summer production restrictions. This provides strong support for some high-quality coal types.