此次淡季煤价上涨由多重因素共振推动：首先，终端需求超预期，国际能源风险叠加下，电力终端采购积极性远超去年；同时，油价高企带动煤化工需求，化工行业耗煤量同比增长11%。

The current decline in coal prices has been driven by multiple factors working together: Firstly, the terminal demand exceeded expectations. Under the combined influence of international energy risks, the enthusiasm of power terminal purchasers was much higher than last year. At the same time, the high oil prices have stimulated the demand for coal chemical products, and the coal consumption of the chemical industry increased by 11% year-on-year.

其次，中下游库存持续走低，终端需求旺盛，叠加大秦线检修制约调入，环渤海港口库存较四月初下降了8.4%，同比降幅15.2%，环渤海港口下锚船持续高位。

Secondly, the inventories in the mid-to-lower reaches have continued to decline, while the terminal demand is strong. Coupled with the maintenance work on the Dalian-Qinhuangdao line restricting the inbound supply, the inventories at the ports along the Bohai Sea have decreased by 8.4% compared to the beginning of April, with a year-on-year decline of 15.2%. The number of ships anchored at these ports remains at a high level.

再次，中转流通环节看涨情绪浓厚，宏观经济回暖，印尼供给收缩预期等因素，推动贸易商囤煤博弈后期行情，进一步支撑涨价。

Furthermore, the upward sentiment in the intermediate circulation环节， the recovery of the macroeconomy, the expected contraction in supply in Indonesia, and other factors have all contributed to traders stockpiling coal in an attempt to influence the later market trend， thereby further supporting the price increase.

受产地安监、进口煤倒挂等因素影响，供应端或有所收缩，而需求端依托经济复苏保持韧性；叠加电厂机组恢复后的终端补库需求，动力煤市场供需格局仍具支撑，预计价格将继续稳中偏强运行。

Affected by factors such as local safety supervision and the inverted pricing of imported coal, the supply side may shrink to some extent. However, the demand side maintains resilience relying on economic recovery. Coupled with the terminal replenishment demand after the restoration of power plant units, the supply-demand situation in the thermal coal market still has support. It is expected that the price will continue to move steadily and moderately higher.

本周，动力煤市场供需博弈大局已定，产地价格稳中小幅波动，港口报价稳中偏强，优质低硫煤种表现相对坚挺，供应收紧与成本倒挂，形成煤价底部支撑。市场在强预期与弱现实交织下，呈现震荡上行行情。

This week, the overall situation of supply and demand in the thermal coal market has been determined. The prices at production sites have remained stable with slight fluctuations, while the quotations at ports have remained stable but slightly strengthened. High-quality low-sulfur coal types have shown relatively firm performance. The tightening supply and the cost inversion have formed a bottom support for coal prices. Under the interweaving of strong expectations and weak reality, the market has presented a volatile upward trend.

月末部分煤矿停产检修，产量出现阶段性收缩；大秦线刚刚恢复，市场煤发运成本持续倒挂，低价货源稀缺，贸易商低价出货后补货困难。港口端挺价意愿增强，叠加印尼减产、斋月及地缘冲突影响，进口煤到岸量缩减，进一步强化国内供应偏紧预期，为煤价提供坚实底部支撑。

At the end of the month, some coal mines were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary reduction in production. The Daxing Line has just resumed operation, but the cost of transporting market coal has continued to be negative, with scarce low-price supplies. Traders have difficulty restocking after selling at low prices. The willingness to maintain prices at the port end has increased. Coupled with the reduction in production in Indonesia, the impact of Ramadan, and the influence of geopolitical conflicts, the volume of imported coal arriving at the ports has decreased, further strengthening the expectation of tight domestic supply and providing a solid bottom support for coal prices.

一方面，终端刚需与补库预期带动需求回暖，华南、海南提前入夏，带动局部电厂日耗回升，化工、建材等非电行业用煤需求高于预期。

On the one hand, the strong demand from end-users and the expectation of replenishing inventory have driven the recovery of demand. The south and Hainan regions entered summer earlier, which led to an increase in the daily coal consumption of some power plants. The demand for coal in non-electric industries such as chemicals and building materials was higher than expected.

另一方面，劳动节假期将至，终端节前补库预期升温，询货活跃度略有提升，成为煤价震荡上行的重要动力。此外。中东地缘局势持续紧张，霍尔木兹海峡通航风险依旧，国际油气价格大幅上涨，进口煤全面倒挂，对内贸煤的替代效应逐步减弱，内贸煤需求被动提升，市场多空分歧明显，博弈加剧导致价格震荡加剧。

On the other hand, the Labor Day holiday is approaching, and the expectation for terminal stock replenishment before the holiday has risen. The activity of inquiring about goods has slightly increased, becoming an important driving force for the upward fluctuation of coal prices. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the navigation risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains. International oil prices have risen significantly, imported coal has completely lost its price advantage, the substitution effect of domestic coal on imported coal has gradually weakened, domestic coal demand has been passively increased, the market has obvious differences between bulls and bears, and the competition has intensified, leading to an increase in price fluctuations.

后续重点关注大秦线恢复后的铁路进车、小长假下游补库力度、电厂日耗变化及地缘局势演变，若电厂补库需求集中释放，煤价有望延续跳涨行情。

Subsequently, the focus will be on the resumption of train operations on the Daqin Line, the intensity of downstream replenishment during the short holiday period, the changes in daily power plant consumption, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation. If the demand for power plant replenishment is concentratedly released, the coal price is expected to continue its upward trend.