近期，港口煤炭市场多空因素并存，煤价僵持偏稳运行。截至6月10日，“CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价”5500K、5000K、4500K三个规格品分别收于863、774、675元/吨，日环比均持平。

Recently, the coal market at the port has seen both bullish and bearish factors coexisting, with the coal prices remaining stable and relatively unchanged. As of June 10th, the "CCTD Reference Price for Spot Coal in the Bohai Rim Region" for three specifications - 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K - were priced at 863 yuan/ton, 774 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively, showing no change from the previous day.

1、天气因素对市场走势的影响愈发明显

1.The influence of weather conditions on market trends is becoming increasingly evident.

据中央气象台消息，6月13日开始，华北南部、黄淮、江淮北部及陕西关中等地多高温天气，日最高气温一般为35-38℃，沿海终端日耗或提升，其补库需求将随之增加，具体来看，终端或将积极兑现长协煤，并适时采购性价比较高的现货资源。

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, starting from June 13th, there will be frequent high-temperature weather in the southern part of North China, the Huaihai region, the northern part of the Jianghuai region, and the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province. The daily maximum temperature will generally range from 35 to 38 degrees Celsius. The daily consumption at the terminals may increase, and the demand for replenishment will also rise accordingly. Specifically, the terminals may actively fulfill long-term contract coal and purchase relatively cost-effective spot resources at an appropriate time.

2、产地煤炭供应恢复进程值得关注

2. The recovery process of coal supply from the production area is worthy of attention.

近期，山西留神峪煤矿事故所带来的影响仍在持续发酵，国家相关部门及多个煤炭产地纷纷召开会议，部署后期矿山安全生产工作，晋、皖、辽、湘等地省长下矿督导检查安全生产工作，全国煤矿安监力度仍较大。据市场消息，截至目前，山西地区本轮停产自查的煤矿中，仍有部分煤矿未复产，部分在产煤矿因安全检查、前期超产、清退外包工队等因素，产量较前期明显下降。综合来看，当前正值6月安全生产月，产地煤矿安监力度将持续较大，加之山西部分煤矿仍处于招工过程中，短期内产地煤炭供应完全恢复或尚需时日。

Recently, the impact caused by the accident at the Lianzhnyu Coal Mine in Shanxi Province has been continuing to intensify. Relevant national departments and several coal-producing regions have held meetings to deploy the subsequent safety production work in mines. Provincial governors from Shanxi, Anhui, Liaoning and Hunan have visited the mines to supervise and inspect the safety production work. The safety supervision efforts in coal mines across the country remain relatively strong. According to market information, as of now, among the coal mines in the Shanxi region that have conducted self-inspections for suspension production, some still have not resumed production, and some operating coal mines have experienced a significant decrease in output due to factors such as safety inspections, previous overproduction, and the withdrawal of outsourcing work teams. In summary, it is currently the Safety Production Month of June. The safety supervision efforts in coal mines in the production areas will remain strong. Moreover, some coal mines in Shanxi are still in the recruitment process, and it may take some time for the supply of coal from the production areas to fully recover.

3、中间环节煤炭库存居于高位

3. The coal inventory at the intermediate stage remains at a high level.

CCTD中国煤炭市场网监测数据显示，目前环渤海四港区(不含天津港)煤炭库存超过2800万吨，处于年内高位水平，同时，南方和江内港口库存亦处于年内高位水平，疏港压力较大。截至6月8日，CCTD主流港口煤炭库存已超过7500万吨，为年内最高水平。

According to the monitoring data from CCTD China Coal Market Network, currently, the coal inventory in the four ports along the Bohai Bay (excluding Tianjin Port) exceeds 28 million tons, reaching a high level for the year. At the same time, the inventories at ports in the south and the inland areas are also at high levels for the year, indicating significant port congestion pressure. As of June 8th, the coal inventory at the main ports under CCTD has exceeded 75 million tons, reaching the highest level for the year.

短期来看，煤炭市场多空博弈或加剧：产地煤炭供应恢复进程缓慢、沿海气温回升将利多煤价;港口煤炭库存仍居高位将利空煤价，煤价上下空间或均不大。后期需要重点关注气温变化、山西等主产地煤炭供应恢复情况及其对煤价的影响。

In the short term, the coal market is likely to see more intense supply and demand fluctuations: The slow recovery of coal supply in the production areas and the rising temperatures in coastal regions are expected to be positive for coal prices; the high levels of coal inventory at ports are expected to be negative for coal prices, and the price range is likely to be narrow. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in temperature, the recovery of coal supply in major production areas such as Shanxi, and their impact on coal prices.