据俄罗斯CCA分析机构5月30日发布的信息，尽管由伊美冲突引发的全球煤炭价格急剧上涨，也未能将俄罗斯煤炭出口推入盈利领域。利多的影响被卢布升值、俄罗斯铁路公司(RZD)逐年上涨的运价、波斯湾局势紧张导致的更高的海运费率、增加的生产成本及其他物流费用所抵消。

在这种情况下，俄罗斯煤炭主产地库兹巴斯的动力煤出口通过所有路线，包括运往远东地区港口转运，出口均无利可图

In this situation, the export of thermal coal from the main coal-producing region of Kuzbass in Russia is carried out via all routes, including transportation to ports in the Far East for transshipment. The export is not profitable.

自2024年以来，俄罗斯卢布升值了17%。考虑到2026年5月的汇率动态，当时汇率达到71.37卢布/美元(截至2026年5月29日)，卢布的升值幅度为23%(以2024年的水平为100%)。这种汇率动态对俄罗斯煤炭公司极为不利，因为生产成本上升，煤炭铁路运输费用也增加。

Since 2024, the Russian ruble has appreciated by 17%. Considering the exchange rate dynamics in May 2026, when the exchange rate reached 71.37 rubles per US dollar (as of May 29, 2026), the appreciation of the ruble was 23% (based on the 2024 level of 100%). This exchange rate dynamic has been extremely unfavorable for Russian coal companies, as production costs have risen and the costs of coal railway transportation have also increased.

2024-2026年平均年度卢布兑美元汇率，RUR/USD

Average annual exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar from 2024 to 2026, RUR/USD

即使在全球价格上涨的情况下，卢布坚挺和国内铁路运费上涨已使该行业濒临破产。

Even in the face of rising global prices, the strong ruble and the increase in domestic railway freight rates have pushed the industry to the brink of bankruptcy.

煤炭生产商继续承担采矿、维护和工资的固定成本。停产往往会导致比以亏损价格出口还要损失更大。

Coal producers continue to bear the fixed costs of mining, maintenance and wages. Shutdowns often result in greater losses than simply exporting at a loss.

俄罗斯能源部(Russian Ministry of energy)警告称，若当前负面趋势持续，2026年煤炭行业的亏损可能高达81亿美元。

The Russian Ministry of Energy has warned that if the current negative trends persist, the coal industry could suffer losses of up to 8.1 billion US dollars in 2026.

行业代表一直在呼吁降低俄罗斯铁路(RZD)的运价，称其已成为人为推高出口成本的关键因素。要使俄罗斯煤炭出口实现盈利，不仅需要卢布贬值和全球价格上涨，更重要的是俄罗斯铁路需降低高昂的运费。

Industry representatives have been calling for a reduction in the freight rates of Russian Railways (RZD), claiming that it has become a key factor in artificially inflating export costs. For Russian coal exports to be profitable, not only does the ruble need to depreciate and global prices need to rise, but more importantly, Russian Railways must lower its exorbitant freight charges.